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";s:4:"text";s:24430:"), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Voter Demographics (9). Want to dive deeper? Not anymore. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. It's the wrong question. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Trump gave them hope. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. 4. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Demographics (84) Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Subscribe to breaking updates (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. (Go to the bottom of the page. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. First, what are bellwether counties? Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. 10. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Have information that relates to fraud in this election? On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. All Rights Reserved. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Arapahoe County. Trump won 18 of the 19. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Do you know this baby? 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Outstanding. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. In communities . Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. There are 391 such counties. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Website Updates Paused ET. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). These are the bellwether counties. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Trump won the other 18 counties. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Nobody forgot about politics.". The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. 108,000 people. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Go on, look them up! Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Telegram Telegram No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. It also backed Gov. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Their emotions and decision making process are real. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Read about our approach to external linking. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. It almost became religious.". HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. (subject to censorship). In their . In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. hide caption. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). (Sorry, not sorry.) It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. ";s:7:"keyword";s:24:"2016 bellwether counties";s:5:"links";s:449:"Tall Ships 2022 Schedule Usa,
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